It's the age-old dilemma faced by all holidaymakers - should you book your airline ticket early before the price soars or wait until the last minute when you might be able to find a bargain?
Well, dither no longer, as Japanese economists have come up with the answer - airline tickets should be booked eight weeks in advance and you should book them in the afternoon to get the best deal.
You're likely to get the best deal on your airline tickets if you book eight weeks in advance, claims a Japanese economist
The experts, who came up with the solution using the mind-boggling mathematical formula ∏A =gUG + min(k - g, (1 - g)(1 - r)), where ∏ apparently equals profit, said: 'When we book our flight to London weeks ahead we have to account for the possibility of u
TESTING THE FORMULA
We decided to test the formula on two websites. Here are the results*.
easyJet
Flying from London to Alicante on August 30 and returning on September 5
Outward: £50.99
Return: £132.81
Total: £183.80
Flying eight weeks later on October 18 and returning on October 24
Outward: £31.99
Return: £20.81
Total: £52.80
Ryanair
Flying from London to Alicante on August 30 and returning on September 5
Outward: £29.99
Return: £59.99
Total: £89.98
Flying eight weeks later on October 18 and returning on October 24
Outward: £21.99
Return: £21.99
Total: £43.98
*Flight quotes only, figures do not include airport taxes or luggage extras.
Unforeseen events which make our trip to London impossible.
'In order to make consumers take their chances, airlines have to offer advance purchase discounts. As a consequence, ticket prices increase as the travel date approaches.'
Booking more than eight weeks ahead may seem like the best option, but it could mean you risk having to pay to alter your booking if your plans change.
However, if you leave it later, there's an increased risk that prices will go up or the flight could be fully booked. The discrepancy between the times of day may be to take advantage of business travellers who are less concerned about price, tend to book trips from the office earlier in the day.
Holidaymakers will book at home later on, the economists suggest. But although the formula from Makoto Watanabe and Marc Moller, published in the latest edition of The Economic Journal, will be invaluable to holidaymakers, it’s not a complete answer to our indecision.The economists note how differently you must act when booking flights compared to tickets for a West End show. In theatre, last-minute bargains can often be available on the day of the performance. But then you run the risk it will be sold out.The report states: ‘The purchase of airline and theatre tickets are both examples where individual demand uncertainty and rationing risks interfere. ‘However, there is empirical evidence which shows that airline ticket prices typically increase overtime while theatre tickets are often sold at a discount on the day. When we purchase our theatre ticket last minute, there exists the possibility that the event has sold out. In order to make consumers bear this risk, theatres implement a clearance sale by offering last-minute discounts.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-1305375/Formula-says-cheapest-holiday-flight-deals-8-weeks-advance.html#ixzz2uzdDbdxW
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